At this point, both sides are highly motivated to turn out in November. Among registered Democratic voters, 3 in 4 say they are almost certain to vote compared with about 8 in 10 Republicans. Independents are less motivated. Four years ago, Democrats were about as mobilized as Republicans and had a clear lead in overall support. Eight years ago, when Democrats suffered losses, Republicans were more motivated.
Historical trends have favored Republicans throughout this election year, and political forecasters still rate the GOP as likely to win the House. Earlier predictions of big GOP gains have been clouded by the Supreme Court’s decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade, spurring onabortion rights supporters, especially younger women. Legislative victories by Democrats and the defeat of a Kansas antiabortion referendum over the summer also appeared to boost morale among some Democrats.
The poll also surveyed Americans on their attitudes toward the ongoing investigations of former president Donald Trump by the Justice Department. A slim 52 percent majority says the former president should be charged with crimes for his handling of classified documents, his fundraising or for his actions related to the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
President Biden continues to be a drag on Democratic candidates this fall. The Post-ABC survey pegs his approval ratingat 39 percent, with 53 percent disapproving, including 41 percent strongly disapproving. The share of Americans saying Biden has accomplished “a great deal” or “a good amount” has grown from 35 percent last November to 40 percent today, although a 57 percent majority still says he has not accomplished much or anything.
Still, the fight for control of Congress is an intense one, with Democrats finding themselves competitive among critically important independent voters. But in the most competitive congressional districts, the poll finds Republicans with the advantage.
Among registered voters, 47 percent say they would vote for the Republican in their House district in November while 46 percent say they would vote for the Democrat. That finding is about the same as it was in April. In February, Republicans held a seven-point advantage. Democrats’ standing is weaker than in 2018, when they led by seven points in national House support before winning control of the chamber.
Political independents narrowly favor Republicans, 47 percent to 42 percent, in the vote for Congress. In 2018, the final Post-ABC poll found Democrats holding a seven-point advantage among independents. Democrats’ competitiveness with independents is perhaps notable, given that independent voters disapprove of Biden by 60 percent to 31 percent. More than 9 in 10 self-identified Democrats and Republicans support their party’s candidate for Congress.
Among voters who disapprove of Biden, 79 percent support Republicans for Congress but 13 percent support Democrats. The smaller number of voters who approve of Biden are more united behind Democrats, favoring them 91 percent to 7 percent over Republicans. In some past years, there has been more uniformity in voting intentions among those approving and disapproving of a president’s performance.
On a related question, 49 percent of registered voters say they prefer that the next Congress be controlled by Republicans to act as a check on Biden while 45 percent say they favor Democratic control to support the president’s agenda. By 51 percent to 40 percent, independent voters say they prefer Republicans be in charge.
The latest poll finds a significant gender gap, continuing a trend from previous cycles: Democrats’ support margin for Congress is 18 points better among women than men, similar to 2018 when Democrats fared 15 points better among women than men in a final Post-ABC national poll. Democrats hold a 10-point advantage among women under age 50, down from a 32-point lead ahead of the 2018 election.
On the other hand, Democrats’ support among non-White registered voters appears weaker than before the 2018 election, with 58 percent favoring Democrats, down from 69 percent in the final Post-ABC poll. Meanwhile, 54 percent of White voters favor Republicans, similar to 52 percent in 2018. Black, Asian American and Hispanic voters are a critical voting bloc that typically votes Democratic in large numbers.
These findings shed light in particular on the battle for control of the House. In past years, Republicans have been able to score gains in House races even when narrowly trailing on the question of people’s voting preference. This year Republicans need only modest gains to win the majority in the House, and most forecasts continue to show them on a course to do that.
The battle for control of the Senate, which is currently split 50-50 with Vice President Harris able to cast tiebreaking votes, will turn on both the overall political climate and on the quality of the candidates. Many of the key races remain close, according to public polls.
The state of the economy looms as a major issue over the election. About 3 in 4 Americans say the economy is either “not so good” or “poor” while about 1 in 4 say it is “good” or “excellent.” In the spring of 2021, 42 percent rated the economy positively, but for the past year, perceptions have soured significantly amid rising prices and stock market declines.
Voters say inflation and the economy are two of the most important issues in their decision, along with abortion and education. Republicans hold a 17-point advantage among registered voters on trust to handle the economy and an 18-point advantage on trust to handle inflation. But Democrats answer with a 17-point advantage on trust to handle abortion.
On other issues, Republicans hold a 22-point advantage on handling crime while Democrats hold a 21-point advantage on climate change. Democrats and Republicans are about even on handling education and schools.
Among those who say the economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 64 percent say they would vote for the Republican in their congressional district, while 58 percent of those who cite inflation as their top issue say they would vote Republican. Among those who cite abortion as the single most important issue, 66 percent say they would vote for the Democrat in their district.
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