In a season of parity, it looks like most of the NFL is still in the playoff race. After all, most of the league is still floating around close to .500. Nineteen teams, in fact, sit between 3-5 and 5-3.
But there’s a difference between having a win-loss record that shows you can theoretically make it to the playoffs and truly having a good chance of getting there. At a play-by-play level, some of those 4-4 teams have played a lot better than other 4-4 teams. Remaining schedules are all over the place, with some teams getting three home games and others getting five. Which games teams have won and lost also matters, as teams start to build their tiebreaker résumés with head-to-head victories plus division and conference records.
To look at which teams have a strong chance to play in January and which teams are just hanging on, we’ve simulated the season 50,000 times using Football Outsiders DVOA ratings and produced current playoff probabilities for all 32 teams below. For a full explanation of how we calculate each team’s playoff odds, click here.
By: Aaron Schatz